Algorithms

Edge Cases That Break Your Weather Model

This is a continuation of a deep-dive into the weather engine that drives our Groundwise apps. Last we looked into the core drying model, which handles most days well. Sun, wind, time, surface type — combine them sensibly and you get a reasonable verdict most of the time.

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Turning Raw Weather Into a Drying Model

In the first article about my foray into using weather data to assess surface conditions for riding activities, I introduced the Groundwise engine, a software decision system that turns weather data into a yes/maybe/no verdict for outdoor conditions. This article goes deeper into the core moisture model: how the engine takes raw weather observations and calculates a wetness score that drives the verdict. The hope is to show how a simple question such as “can I ride my mountain bike today?” spiraled into a fairly complex yet intriguing design challenge. Totally fair if you aren’t entranced by weather math, I get it, but I feel like there’s some value in pulling back the curtain to reveal how much goes into solving a seemingly simple problem.

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